№ 2 (20) – 2023



завантаження  S. Tarasenko


завантаження  A. Levchenko, Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor
завантаження  M. Pesterev

Cite in the List of bibliographic references (DSTU 8302:2015)

Тарасенко С. М., Левченко А. О., Пестерев М. В. Ідентифікація моделі параметра потока відмов озброєння та військової техніки при однорежимному утриманні. Збірник наукових праць Військової академії (м. Одеса). 2023. № 2 (20). С. 56-62. https://doi.org/10.37129/2313-7509.2023.20.56-62


Operation of a sample of weapons and military equipment is a set of measures that includes intended use, maintenance, repair, transportation and storage. All these components of the life cycle have their own dynamic indicators, because they are in dynamic systems. Experimental search for the best conditions for keeping weapons and military equipment samples is financially burdensome and time-consuming, and sometimes not always appropriate. The dynamic systems of operation of some samples have certain limitations in terms of the occurrence of destruction, breakdowns or even explosions. The effectiveness of the use of any type of weapon is directly dependent on the conditions of keeping the sample before use. Failures that are possible in the process of detention are precisely of a probabilistic nature in the process of detention, before the start of application, which is extremely unacceptable considering the subject of weapons and military equipment. Single-mode maintenance of equipment is a component of the operation system of the weapons and military equipment sample. Technical condition failures are factors that directly affect the effectiveness of the use of equipment and weapons for their intended purpose, and are key factors influencing survivability.
To carry out simulation modeling, it is necessary to identify the parameters of failure flows, which will have different manifestations depending on the conditions of detention and different manifestations depending on the type and type of weapons and military equipment.
When modeling the processes of weapons and military equipment retention states, it is necessary to consider as many available methods as possible, weeding out those that have deviations from the indicators of the expected result, which at the final stage may affect the false indicators of the effectiveness of survivability maintenance measures.
In this article, the analysis of the content of weapons and military equipment is carried out, considering the algorithm of the method of maximum compactness of the median model (MMCMM-identification), in addition, the analysis of structural and parametric identifications of the model of the parameter of the failure flow according to operational data is carried out. Comparison of the Maximum Compactness Method (MCM) and the Least Squares Method (LSM).


containment conditions, failure flow parameters, life cycle, survivability, influencing factors, failures, maintenance, technical condition, recovery, simulation modeling, model identification, maximum compactness method.

List of bibliographic references

  1. Тарасенко С. М., Левченко А. О. Побудова мікромодуля оператора та імітаційне моделювання процесу технічного обслуговування озброєння та військової техніки. Збірник наукових праць Військової академії (м. Одеса). 2023. Вип. 1(19). С. 80–86. https://doi.org/10.37129/2313-7509.2023.19.80-86.
  2. Гнеденко В. В. Курс теории вероятности : учеб. пособие. Москва : Физматгиз, 1969. 400 с.
  3. Левин С. Ф. Основы теории контроля. Москва : МО СССР, 1983. 51 с.
  4. Смоляк С. А., Титаренко Б. П. Устойчивые методы оценивания. Москва : Статистика, 1980. 208 с.
  5. Айвазян С. А., Енюков И. С. Мешалкин Л. Д. Прикладная статистика : Исследование зависимостей. Москва : Финансы и статистика, 1985. 487 с.
  6. Мостеллер Ф., Тьюки Дж. Анализ данных та регрессия. Москва : Финансы и статистика, 1982. 317 с.
  7. Ершов А. А. Стабильные методы оценки параметров. Автоматика и телемеханіка.Москва, 1978. Вип. 8. С. 66–100.
  8. Кашьян Р.Л., Рао А.Р. Построение динамических стохастических моделей по экспериментальных данным. Москва : Наука, 1983. 384 с.
  9. Левин С. Ф. Основы теории обеспечения эксплуатации технических объектов. Москва : МО СССР, 1982. 99 с.
  10. «Вопросы кибернетики». Выпуск 094. Статистические методы в теории обеспечения эксплуатации/ред. С. Ф. Левин. 94-те вид. Москва : АН СССР, 1982. 152 с.
  11. Худсон Д. Статистика для физиков. Москва : Мир, 1967. 242 с.


  1. Tarasenko, S. M., & Levchenko, A. O. (2023). Building macromodule of operator and simulation of the maintenance process of weapons and military equipment. Collection of scientific works of the Military Academy (Odesa),1(19),80–86. https://doi.org/10.37129/2313-7509.2023.19.80-86. [in Ukrainian].
  2.  Gnedenko, V. V. (1969). Course of probability theory. Moscow: Fizmatgiz Publ. [in Russian].
  3.  Levin, S.F. (1983). Fundamentals of control theory. Moscow: Ministry of Defense of the USSR. [in Russian].
  4.  Smolyak, S.A., & Titarenko, B.P. (1980). Sustainable methods of evaluation. Moscow: Statistics Publ. [in Russian].
  5.  Ayvazyan, S.A., Enyukov, I.S., & Meshalkin, L.D. (1985). Applied statistics: A study of dependencies. Moscow: Finance and Statistic. [in Russian].
  6.  Mosetler, F., & Tukey, J. (1982). Data analysis and regression. Moscow: Finance and Statistics Publ. [in Russian].
  7.  Ershov, A.A. (1978). Stable methods for estimating parameters. Automation and Telemechanics, 8, 66–100. [in Russian].
  8.  Kashyan, R. L., &Rao, A. R. (1983). Construction of dynamic stochastic models based on experimental data. Science Publ. [in Russian].
  9.  Levin, S. F. (1982). Fundamentals of the theory of ensuring the operation of technical objects. Moskow : USSR Ministry of Defense Publ. [in Russian].
  10.  Levin, S. F. (Ed.). (1988). Questions of cybernetics. Statistical methods in the theory of maintenance of operation. Digest of articles, 94. Moskow : USSR Academy of Sciences. Publ. [in Russian].
  11.  Hudson, D. (1967). Statistics for physicists. Moscow: Mir Publ. [in Russian]. 
Copyright 2014 20.56-62 (eng) А. Розроблено ІОЦ ВА
Templates Joomla 1.7 by Wordpress themes free