O. Ugolnikov, B. Demianchuk, N. Kolesnychenko, O. Malinovsky.


The dynamic models of processes in transport logistics systems are considered. In the literature, such complex systems as the military transport logistics system or the combat vehicle support system are often modeled as a set of typical system states. These states are interconnected by a large number of transitions of a given intensity, which are carried out with given probabilities. Graphically, this is represented using the so-called graph of states and transitions, and the probabilities of the system being in a particular state are the subject of research in such a graph.

The methods available in the literature for studying the dynamic characteristics of state graphs and transitions are analyzed. A description of the changes in probabilities as a function of time is made using systems of differential equations, usually linear. Based on practical requirements, approximate solutions to such systems are usually sought. One of the approximate methods is the decomposition method, in which, instead of a system of coupled equations, a set of independent equations is considered, the solution of which is not difficult. The results of the solution have an accuracy satisfactory from the point of view of practical use. The assumptions based on which the decomposition method can be used are analyzed. It is shown that the accuracy of the obtained results substantially depends on the given initial conditions and should increase over time, when this dependence weakens.

A method is proposed for the exact solution of a system of differential equations, free of any assumptions. The use of operational calculus is substantiated, which reduces the solution of a system of linear differential equations to the solution of a system of linear algebraic equations for unknown images of the sought-for Laplace functions. The method is used to describe the process of technical support for the restoration of the transport flow of military logistics. The boundaries of the possibility of applying the results of a simpler approximate solution are established.


Dynamic models, systems of differential equations, operational calculus, exact definition of probabilities of traffic flow states.


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